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IN THE SPOTLIGHT


"Harmonized monitoring and evaluation indicators for procurement and supply management systems." (2011) WHO Publication.

 

This document presents 12 core indicators for monitoring and evaluating PSM at national level. This manual assists tracking performance of national PSM systems and preventing frequent stock-outs and overstocking. Indicators will alert managers to system areas requiring technical support.


More about Forecasting and Supply Planning
To meet the need for scale-up of HIV/AIDS programs, countries must improve their forecasting so that those responsible for the procurement and supply of needed commodities can make the necessary arrangements to ensure that patients and programs receive a continuous supply of essential medicines and health products.


Effective forecasting and supply planning are characterized by:

  • 24-month forecasts to ensure product availability
  • 12-month supply plans to determine the optimal procurement and delivery schedule
  • Quarterly review and revision of forecasts and plans
  • Sharing of quantifications with other stakeholders
  • Use of consumption data, and where consumption data are not available use of a morbidity approach, with appropriate allowance for program scale-up

Until 2009, 15 PEPFAR implementing partners (IPs) in Nigeria developed individual drug quantifications for their HIV/AIDS treatment programs using various methods with differing assumptions and data. This fragmented approach obscured the overall picture of the PEPFAR Nigeria antiretroviral treatment (ART) program, impeded coordinated product selection, hampered PEPFAR-wide budget planning and prevented economies of scale in procurement. In April 2008, SCMS worked with IPs to develop individual quantifications and to compile the first PEPFARwide, five-year aggregated quantification for ARVs in Nigeria.

 

The quantification exercise provided IPs the first aggregate figure, $105 million, for total ARV needs for the coming budget year. It also revealed how quickly that ART programs were planning to switch patients from Stavudine-based treat­ment regimens to more costly Truvada, causing potential shortfalls in funding. As a result, programs were advised to transition to Truvada only those patients needing the switch for medical reasons. The resulting data were also used to identify two high-value, high-volume ARV drug combinations for pooled procurement by SCMS.

Please share these resources related to successes and challenges in forecasting and demand planning of HIV/AIDS commodities.



Other Related Resources

SCMS Publications

SCMS In Brief: "Zimbabwe’s Logistics Sub Unit enables sustainable scale-up of HIV/AIDS programs." (June 2011) pdf logo

Learn how the Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MOHCW), with SCMS support, rolled out a new logistics system for antiretroviral medicines in 2006. With USAID funding, the MOHCW also established a Logistics Sub-Unit (LSU) to coordinate procurement and distribution of HIV/AIDS commodities.


SCMS Technical Brief: "Forecasting and Supply Planning." (May 2007) pdf logo

This technical brief addresses how accurate quantification for HIV/AIDS care and treatment programs—forecasting the quantities needed and planning procurement for appropriate pharmaceuticals and supplies—is essential to ensuring that patients receive a continuous supply of medicines. Learn how SCMS develops harmonized national forecasts of needed products and shares this information with its donors and other stakeholders. The result is a systematic, coordinated response that helps ensure the effective use of resources.


SCMS Publication: "Report on the development of a reliable and replicable methodology for forecasting the global demand for paediatric anti-retroviral medicines." (November 2007) pdf logo

This report examines how SCMS developed a standardized procedure to generate a replicable forecast, and based on data from the 15 PEPFAR focus countries, prepared a selective forecast of paediatric ARV demand for 2007 and 2008.


Community Contributions

WHO Publication: "Harmonized monitoring and evaluation indicators for procurement and SMS." (2011) pdf logo

This document presents 12 core indicators for monitoring and evaluating PSM at national level. Six of the 12 are defined as early-warning indicators of stock-outs and overstocking. This manual is recommended for tracking the performance of national PSM systems and preventing frequent stock-outs and overstocking. The indicators will alert managers to areas requiring technical support to strengthen the national PSM system.

USAID/DELIVER Project Publication: "Guide for Quantifying ARV Drugs." (May 2006) pdf logo

The step-by-step approach to quantification presented in this guide incorporates DELIVER experience and lessons learned in quantification of ARV drugs in eight countries. Illustrative examples from Excel spreadsheets that were used in quantifying drug requirements for a national ART program are attached in the appendix to this guide.


The Family Planning Logistics Management Project Publication: "Contraceptive Forecasting Handbook." (2005) pdf logo

The Contraceptive Forecasting Handbook for Family Planning and HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs is designed as a reference book for forecasting commodity needs for family planning and HIV/AIDS prevention programs. Topics include general methodological considerations, data sources and alternative techniques for preparing forecasts of consumption, special considerations in forecasting for new programs and HIV/AIDS prevention programs, methods for validating the forecasts, procedures for calculating quantities of contraceptives required based on the consumption forecast, and methods for monitoring the forecast over time.

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“Immediately after the training we used the PipeLine software for determining a national two-year ARV supply plan for Mozambique. We found that it translates quantification data into something more tangible. Shipments, arrival data and last but not least: money. The reports, especially the graphs, make it a lot easier to inform and convince key decision makers of the importance of a regular and long-term supply plan.”


A supply training participant in Mozambique
The Supply Chain Management System (scms) is implemented by the Partnership for Supply Chain Management, Inc. This website was made possible through the support of the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the US Agency for International Development (USAID) under the terms of contract no. GPO-I-00-05-00032-00. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of USAID or the US government.