To meet the need for scale-up of HIV/AIDS programs, countries must improve their forecasting so that those responsible for the procurement and supply of needed commodities can make the necessary arrangements to ensure that patients and programs receive a continuous supply of essential medicines and health products.
Effective forecasting and demand planning are characterized by:
- 24-month forecasts to ensure product availability
- 12-month supply plans to determine the optimal procurement and delivery schedule
- Quarterly review and revision of forecasts and plans
- Sharing of quantifications with other stakeholders
- Use of consumption data, and where consumption data are not available use of a morbidity approach, with appropriate allowance for program scale-up
In March 2007, the Ministry of Health of Ethiopia developed a six-year national forecast that will be used for resource mobilization, procurement planning and Ethiopia’s Global Fund Round 7 application.
Please share these resoures related to successes and challenges in forecasting and demand planning of HIV/AIDS commodities.
