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Reducing Stockout Rates in Zambia
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Challenge Historically, Zambia has suffered from stockouts of key laboratory supplies. As recently as October 2007, the stockout rate of the 185 major lab commodities was 70 percent. In 2008, with the support from the USAID|DELIVER Project and SCMS, Zambia established a process for conducting national annual forecasts and quantifications and procurement planning exercises for life-saving medicines and supplies.
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Program Implementation Annual forecasting activities, chaired by the Ministry of Health, provide a formal mechanism for all key partners and the MOH to forecast the national need for ARV products in the coming year as well as estimates for the year after. All key players come together for a period of two days (for test kits) to six days (for laboratory commodities) to reach consensus on commodity needs. Along with the annual forecast, the same national group convenes quarterly to update forecasts and adjust coordinated procurement plans as needed. Zambia has also taken the unprecedented step of conducting a seven-year forecast, and cost estimates, for ARVs, HIV tests, laboratory commodities, and selected opportunistic infection (OI) products, up until 2015.
Zambia has also taken the unprecedented step of conducting a seven-year forecast, and cost estimates, for essential medicines and supplies.
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Results and OutcomesWith the ever-increasing expansion of the ART program in Zambia, including implementing a rigorous logistics supply system for ARVs that has reduced service delivery product stockouts to almost zero, the country has far surpassed its projected patient targets. The result has been an ever-increasing cost of procuring enough ARVs to meet patient needs and ensure a full pipeline for ARVs.
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